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Tuesday 11 May 2021

Recommended Europe in the coming months will need little politicians and much ...

Europe in the coming months will have little need for politicians and much for statesmen

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The Constitutional Court of Germany added a paragraph to the saga of Buridano's donkey that I tried to describe in my articles that appeared on MOONDO on April 29 (Germany, the European Union and Buridano's donkey) and 7 May (No default, the solution is another).

The Court, for goodness, granted the European Central Bank a period of three months to justify its practice, set up by Draghi and continued by Lagarde, to support the debts of the "weak" economies, the so-called quantitative easing, used since 2015 to purchase government bonds for a total of 2,2 billion euros ("trillion" for the Anglo-Saxon scale), a value equal to the entire debt of the Italian State. The period granted by the Court will add uncertainty to the immense uncertainty that comes from the pandemic, not sympathetically for the naive supporters of an improbable Franciscan "solidarity" between peoples.

The ECB may not respond, to avoid placing itself at the mercy of the paturnias of the other 18 courts of the euro area countries, but it is inevitable that it will feel the weight of Germany and will seek a Appeasement, despite Lagarde's male statement: undeterred. However, it is clear that the Court (following its applicants within the country) is issuing a warning to prevent the ECB from doing "everything that needs to be done", as Draghi put it. So, to stay at the horns of the Germanic dilemma, the Court took an explicit position in favor of one Deutschland über Alles, explicitly criticizing the previous opinion of the European Court of Justice, a claim of superiority of considerable arrogance, even at the price of a general default, against the alternative of a Germany that takes the lead in building a truly united, prosperous and competitive Europe with the great powers of the world.

The decision comes at a time when the German press was showing greater understanding of the difficulties of the "southern countries". It is "a blow to the circle and another to the barrel", against the background of an attitude stylistically described by the sixteenth-century philosophical apologist of the donkey who cannot choose between two piles of hay, and is starving.

Some few optimists say that the uncertainty, the consequences of which will be seen at the end of the year, will push Germany to decide to finally put itself at the head of the political-financial unification of Europe. But in fact the position of the Court, increasing uncertainty for the markets, is one more step towards the other horn, the bankruptcy of the hyper-indebted countries, Italy in the first place.

We'll see. The fact remains that the bet on the future measured by the Italian treasury bonds bund German feds at 10 years old spread, is at about 250 points, 2,5%. Italian taxpayers pay over 2 billion euros more annually to finance the past debt of over 50 billion euros than taxpayers from Germany who procure from the disparaged ECB at the rate of 0,00% would pay, and a similar burden on companies. For the Italian government, the annual outlay is equal to the contested coronavirus emergency maneuver, for companies it is less competitive on international markets.

In spite of everything, I feel a lot of empathy with the members of the Court because the 16 members, dressed in improbable Renaissance-medieval red clothes (despite the institution being at the most of the nineteenth century), must take on legal responsibilities on issues that would be politics, and they must decide according to Karlshrue, a city born in 1715 with European-Enlightenment connotations that more could not, 79 km away from Stuttgart, where the representatives of the Germanic industrial oligarchy are certainly on the other horn of the dilemma as large exporters within Europe, with Italians and French first to pay their turnover, perhaps going into debt.

As far as I know of Germany, I am sure that deep secret discussions are going on behind the scenes. Nothing leaks, and it is not easy to understand who will prevail. I hope the Italian government, also behind the scenes, will do everything possible to help the process. Europe in the coming months will have little need for politicians and much for statesmen.

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