Next month will be crucial: many things will depend on the success or failure of the two actions taken by the government in the fight against the pandemic.
If (and only if), within the next three weeks, the tightening of the restrictive provisions on mobility and social relationships will be able to stop the growth of the positivity rates and, above all, of the number of hospitalized, it will be possible to start thinking about tactics again. more flexible and articulated for the post-Easter period that reduce the devastating economic and social impacts.
If (and only if) the new commissioner management succeeds in reaching (or at least approaching) the courageously declared target of the 20 million vaccines administered by the end of April, it will be possible to corroborate the forecast of 80% coverage by September and then start over to think about the concrete implementation of the “recovery” strategies being defined in the NRP.
From an economic point of view, Italy is on the brink of an abyss. Not only due to the reduction of about one-tenth of the income produced in 2020, which is likely to reproduce this year, but because strategic sectors such as tourism or the textile / clothing industry (and related commercial activities) have undergone reductions of turnover so catastrophic as to determine the risk of a massacre of companies (and therefore of collapse of production capacity) which would be fatal for the reactivation of development dynamics given the weight that these activities have in the national economy.
From a social point of view, the country is exhausted. It is evidently perceived in the psychosocial criticalities (for young people and for families) caused by the massive return to distance learning in the education system and in a less evident (but perhaps even more dramatic) way in the worsening of the conditions of fragile subjects ( elderly and non self-sufficient people) who are particularly affected by the restrictions of relationality.
All this in the presence of an explosion in the public deficit which, only thanks to the European anchorage, did not trigger the dramatic spiral of raising interest rates on debt.
On the other hand, if the double operation were to be successful, an enormous boost, even psychological, could be obtained when emerging from the crisis.
An at least partially positive outcome also appears decisive for the maintenance of the delicate political balances that support a government that appears, in many ways, the last trench against the possible return of populisms that could re-emerge even more extreme from a new crisis of confidence in ' public opinion.
Our wisdom, as Dumas wrote, lies in two words: “wait and hope” (and in the meantime keep our nerve).