The crisis that led to the establishment of the Draghi government triggered an earthquake destined to produce effects in the national political framework that will last a long time. The break that has already taken place in the M5S is following a rift in the PD that soon seems destined to blow the internal balance, not excluding the Zingaretti secretariat.
It is the general situation that is set in motion, so much so that a breakdown and recomposition of the political structures in a relatively short time is foreseen, during the same term in progress that, passing through the local elections in the coming months (if the will not impose the postponement) and the election of the new President of the Republic (early 2022), will end in spring 2023.
The first signs appeared during the crisis that led to the fall of the Conte government. In that phase, the fragility of the Giallorossi line-up emerged, when M5S and PD settled on the front of Count III, convinced they had safe cards in hand to win it, collecting votes among those who in the ocean liner in Montecitorio are called, without offense, " loose dogs ".
That road turned out to be dead-end and forced President Mattarella to take matters into his own hands, first entrusting an exploratory mandate to the Speaker of the House, Hon. Fico, to then give a decisive turn with the assignment to prof. Draghi for a new government able to cope with the health and economic and social crises. A "government for Italy" that recalls the idea of the government of "national unity" repeatedly expressed by the Quirinale.
The plebiscitary adhesion to the choice of prof. Draghi, with the only honest opposition of the Brothers of Italy, shocked the scene. Lega and Forza Italia dived in support. And while Matteo Renzi was enjoying the success of his initiative, PD and M5S remained with the match in hand, having to give up the third Count and bite the bullet represented by the reviled Berlusconi and Salvini, with whom they never wanted to be together in the government.
History, at times, plays bad jokes, especially towards those who with prosopopoeia and stubbornness refuse to see beyond their nose, that is to say thinking about sharing the political income deriving from the use of the 209 billion European Union funds rather than putting at the center a shared project for the use of those resources, for the benefit of the entire national community represented by a composite range of political forces.
At the beginning of this note, the prospect of a general reshuffling of the Italian political framework was mentioned, through a breakdown and recomposition of the forces in the field. The crisis of the M5S, with the split that has already taken place in its parliamentary groups, marks, if not the end, the decline of populism.
The shock that hit the grillini was immediately reflected on the PD, and it could not have been otherwise after the double mandate bond with which the secretary Zingaretti had chained himself to the M5S and to the fate of the Conte government. The idea of forging a historic pact with LEU and M5S, shifting the helm all the way to the left, followed by the clumsy and abortive attempt to set up a parliamentary intergroup, has resulted in a political and personal fiasco for Zingaretti who will now be forced to convene a true congress and to bring party leadership into play. En passant, the adjective "historical" led badly to the PCI and, now that Zingaretti, with one gaffe, thinks of relaunching the "PCI" and, with it, left-wing populism, the fate is at least uncertain.
Going back to the time when the crisis was maturing, one thinks of the sortie of the deputy secretary, the Hon. Orlando, almost an omen, according to which Matteo Renzi's strategy was to split the PD. It doesn't matter who the architect is, but the result seems on the verge of being achieved.
Up to now, left-wing populism was opposed by right-wing populism represented largely by the Lega. But, the move made by Salvini to throw himself immediately and totally in support of the government "for Italy", has done away with the bank on which the left forces counted and relied. Everything has come back into play, with Forza Italia which can play, together with others from Italia Viva to + Europa and Calenda, an aggregation point at the center, which can have a good consistency, especially if there is a reform of the electoral law in proportional sense.
The next few months, from now to the election of the new President of the Republic, will be decisive for the evolution of the national political framework. In this temporal context, the Draghi government, from which no one will be able to back down except to the detriment of himself, will constitute the leavening factor of the new political situation.