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Wednesday 23 June 2021

Recommended New York: The next US president will certainly be a woman

New York: The next US president will certainly be a woman

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The next US presidential election will take place on November 5, 2024, with the elected president taking office on January 20, 2025.

In four years, the current president, Joe Biden, will be 83 years old and the possible competitor (if re-nominated) Donald Trump, 79. Biden is already the oldest US president in history and Trump would be even more so. Therefore for reasons of age it is possible that both will not reapply.

At this point, at 60 in 2024, the current Vice President, Democrat Kamala Harris, would be the perfect age for a nomination (he is the same age as President Harry S. Truman when he took office in 1945).

On the Republican side, two contenders are coming forward, both women: Liz Cheney, currently 54-year-old and Congresswoman representing the state of Wyoming, and Nikki Haley, currently 49-year old, former governor of South Carolina and former US ambassador. to the United Nations.

There would also be a third, Trump's second child, Ivanka, who lately has aligned herself with more centrist positions (compared to her older brother Donald Jr. who has also been cited as a possible presidential candidate, albeit with very few chances).

Cheney is the eldest daughter of former Vice President (under George W. Bush) Dick Cheney, is part of the Republican Party establishment and stands in stark contrast to the populist wing of the Trump-controlled party. The congresswoman is also president of the Republican Conference in the House, the third most important position in the Republican leadership in the House.

Haley had been named ambassador when Trump was president, despite first supporting Florida Senator Marco Rubio and then Texas Senator Ted Cruz, both of Trump's competitors, during the primary. The relationship between Haley and Trump hasn't been idyllic, in fact she resigned as ambassador in 2018 with, as she said, "dignity intact".

Haley has many firsts: the first female governor of South Carolina (for two terms), the youngest governor of all the United States (previously she was elected federal deputy for three terms), and the second governor of Indian descent (the name from unmarried is Nimrata Randhawa), and the first Asian-American governor (Harris is the first Asian-American vice president, her mother was Shyamala Gopalan born in Chennai, India). 

While for Harris the Democratic "nomination" is almost automatic, the Republican one has to go through the primaries. It is possible that Trump pushes extremist candidates, however they will not receive sufficient funding for two campaigns (the primary and the general) as the large Republican taxpayers are expected to fall back towards moderate candidates like Cheney and Haley. Among other things, Cheney can count on the support of his father, who was fundamental to get Bush 2 elected.

clockwise: Harris, Cheney, Haley, Trump
clockwise: Harris, Cheney, Haley, Trump

Looking at the male scene, there could be many potential vice presidents (for both sides), but few Republican "papabili" candidates for the presidency. Among these we can mention the Texas Senator Ted Cruz, first an avid detractor of Trump, then his faithful ally; Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, whose contract for a book from the Simon & Schuster publishing house was canceled due to his extremist positions, then former Trump deputy Mike Pence (whom Trump supporters wanted to hang for not having supported the cause invented by Trump) and also the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, of Abruzzese origin, made famous for his devotion to the extremist positions of Trump. Of course, as anticipated, Trump Jr.'s candidacy is not excluded (he even had himself portrayed with the banner "Don Jr. 2024"), even if this will not be well seen by moderate and loyal Republicans (Jr. said publicly that "the Republican Party no longer exists, the Trump Party exists"). 

Don Jr. with the banner
Don Jr. with the banner

The battle between men, however, will not be for the presidential candidacy, but for that of the vice presidency. A completely female “ticket” is not foreseen, so there will be aggressive maneuvers for the deputies from both sides. There could then also be a coup de theater with Ivanka as candidate for the presidency and her older brother Don Jr. as vice presidency, something that never happened, but not prohibited by the Constitution, and that would certainly send the Trumpian base in raptures.






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