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Friday 14 May 2021

Letter from Seen from NY: USA and EU compared for the post COVID-19

Seen from NY: USA and EU compared for the post COVID-19

Author of the content

What will the USA and the EU look like after the coronavirus? For America I see three main challenges: the presidency, the health system and the re-definition of "war". Also for the European Union, there will be three challenges to face: the downsizing of the Union, new alliances and the increase in corruption, particularly in Italy.

For both areas, as far as we have been able to analyze so far, the economic recovery should not be too difficult. This recession was created to solve a health problem, and most sectors will get going again as soon as the emergency subsides. As for the US presidency, if the incumbent president, Donald Trump, has luck on his side, and the epidemic returns to manageable conditions before the summer, he can safely head for re-election. If, on the other hand, he continues beyond the summer, the financial stimulus of 2.200 billion will not be enough and, even with a further economic stimulus, his administration will still be accused of having been unable to manage the emergency. 

The now-favored Democratic competitor, Joe Biden, showed no leadership during this phase of crisis (he was criticized for it even by former Barack Obama aides), and was seen from the start as a makeshift of centrist forces fearful of the other. leftist candidate, Bernie Sanders. If the match is between Trump and Biden, Trump will get back the trump card lost to the epidemic. Among the political figures who have so far put themselves in the forefront to manage the epidemic, Andrew Cuomo stands out above all others, the governor of the state of New York (whose state is at the epicenter of the infections), who is facing Trump for blame him for his irresponsibility, so much so that Tucker Carlson, a FOX News columnist, considers Cuomo to be Trump's real challenger for the presidency. 

As for the health sector (for the USA we have to talk about the health sector, not the 'system'), this will suffer such a shock that it will have to revise its relations both with health insurance companies and with pharmaceutical companies (an example : 50 tablets of levothyroxine sodium in Italy cost 2,47 euros, in the US $ 30).
As for the defense of the country, the US will have to include massive prevention and containment measures for epidemics and pandemics, in association with a reformed health system and all the armed forces.

Returning to the EU, it is now clear that the Union does not actually exist. Instead there are parasitic states (Holland), disorganized states (Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal), dominant states (Germany, France) and states that if they left the Union, nobody would notice (Denmark). For the post-Covid-19 period, one could go back to the idea of ​​two different European unions: the northern one, headed by Germany, and the southern one with France at the head. It is doubted that France could join the Northern Union and act as a garçon for the Teutons. For alliances, there will be a choice between the USA, China and Russia.  

As regards corruption, Italy in particular will face four emergencies: the high number of undeclared workers who have reported themselves to receive state aid, the budget cuts that will weaken the judiciary and law enforcement agencies, l increase in the number of recruits in the various criminal organizations and a closer link between politicians and mafias.  

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