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Sunday 9 May 2021

Economy & Finance The European Union must come "of age"

The European Union must come "of age"

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Turbulent winds stir the international scene. Concerns about the crisis between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the uncertainty due to Brexit, the downturn in the economic situation in the European area, the growing US isolationism, expansion were added to the now clear Sino-American conflict over tariffs. Chinese that from Africa points to Europe. All phenomena already consistent in themselves that in chasing and intertwining produce a general negative climate.

The war of duties generates a restriction of world trade, since it involves other countries, first of all European, which together constitute the fulcrum of merchant trade. In the context of the globalized system, the perverse effects of the phenomenon cannot be tackled with policies of closing the national markets, while they generate a fall in all production starting from the genres intended for export which, inevitably, drags the entire economy of individual countries . When the rules governing world trade jump, a sort of trade war is triggered which ends up exacerbating political conflicts, bringing them to the limit of military risks.

Iran, whether or not it is responsible for the drone attack on the large refineries of Saudi Arabia, has long been a hot spot on the world chessboard, both for the political and military menage of the Middle Eastern area, where it has hands in dough in the civil war in Syria and the never dormant attention to Israel. The American policy desired by President Trump, starting with the rejection of the nuclear deal, triggers winds of war. For the future, until full operation of the Saudi refineries, which account for half of world consumption, is not resumed, an increase in the price of crude oil appears to be expected and a consequent impact on the general price system.

Brexit, the UK's exit from the European Union, is heading towards a no-deal breakup. British Prime Minister Johnson is taking the clash to paroxysmal levels, throwing his country into the unknown with the conviction that outside the EU it will once again be great, as in the days of the British Empire. In London, the most attentive economic analysts and political observers speak of a disaster announced, which will also be bad for economic, political and human relations for the rest of Europe. The British government, seized by anti-European fury, does not feel a double danger: the internal one of the rekindling of a conflict on the Irish border to which a separatist push from Scotland is added; the international one, due to the possible decline in the influence of the London market on the financial market, with the increasing acquisition by the Chinese of very important prey, such as the declared objective for the London Stock Exchange, which would add to the already acquired control of the metal exchange (the London Metal Exchange).

recreation is over

China is already playing as an all-round economic and political player, now the confrontation is direct with the United States, of which it is trying to undermine ancient positions acquired. After the large-scale economic penetration in Africa, Beijing has targeted Europe by launching a far-sighted policy that goes by the name of the "silk road". After the acquisition of the Greek port of Piraeus, here is the recent agreement with Italy for a commercial base in Trieste and the prospect of arriving in Hamburg. It is evident that this economic advance involves a growth of the same political influence.

And here is the European question, forced to look after Brexit and already intent on discounting the effects of the various international crises on its economy. Here the problem is called cohesion and relaunching of the union which concerns both the economic and the political plan, including the military side. America, the fifty-year-old tutelary deity, looks elsewhere. In the East, Russia is on such ambiguous and uncertain positions. China has said so. Now the word is for Europe; the European Union must come of age and take on all its functions and perspectives on its own. There is no alternative. Once the sovereign trend has been defeated in the recent continental elections, it is up to the new parliament in Strasbourg and the new executive commission in Brussels to start the positive turnaround that is expected. He must do so having clear that he will only be able to do it on his own, putting his forces and his political ability into play. There is no alternative.

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