His main problems are known to the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden (whom President Donald Trump calls "the sleepy Joe").
Young people did not vote for him in the primary (they preferred the more progressive Bernie Sanders). However, few young people go to vote in general elections (only 46,1% of the 18-29 year old group went to the polls in 2016, even lower is the percentage of the 18-24 year old group).
Even the “black” and “brown” communities (Afro and Latin Americans), which made them win the primary, do not vote en masse (only 59,6% voted in the 2016 presidential elections).
Additionally, with numerous protests underway, some of them vandalism and violence, the narrative has shifted from Trump's multiple gaps to citizen safety.
Unless an overwhelming victory occurs on November 3, 2020, Biden will face a wide range of emergencies. In fact, to the problems with Trump that the dems predicted, others have been added that they are only now taking into exasperated consideration.
The problems examined so far are:
- Trump does not leave the White House even if he loses, at the cost of barricading himself. In this case only the Marines will be able to physically remove it.
- Trump denounces that the elections have been rigged, so he does not accept defeat ("It's the only way Biden can win," he has already declared).
- Trump is smashing the postal service to keep ballot papers out of mail.
The problems that have now emerged are:
- Trump announces he won the election before the exit polls.
- Trump is delaying the election until after the vaccine arrives.
- Trump challenges election results in court. To take as an example is the case of the 2000 elections, in which dem Al Gore lost to Republican George W. Bush for fraud in the state of Florida. The Supreme Court did not allow a new count of the ballots and Gore resigned himself to defeat without using other constitutional tools at his disposal, which would have given him victory. The protests organized by the Republican party (the so-called Brooks Brothers riot) influenced the Supreme Court.
- Trump has stated that he will remain president for a total of 20 years, even if the legal limit is eight.
- The FOX TV network (of Rupert Murdoch, a Trump ally) announces that Tump has won before the correspondence ballots in favor of Biden arrive and are counted.
- Putin comes to the aid with three moves. 1) The exit polls of the states in the balance give the victory to Biden. At this point the Russian hackers spread the rumor that China has altered the votes. The US security services confirm Biden's victory, but Trump questions it. 2) Discrepancies. The paper documentation of the votes, used as a supporting copy for the electronic vote, assigns the victory to Biden, the only electronic one (hacked by the Russians) to Trump. 3) Chaos at the polls. A few days before the vote, a select group of people busy at the polls (many elderly) are terrified by Russian hackers of the danger of COVID-19 and withdraw. To address the shortage of staff at the last minute, the polls are consolidated, creating long lines and resignation from dem voters who go to the closed polls without notice.
- Trump does not accept postal votes. The danger is the so-called "blue shift", that is, that Trump has the advantage with the counting of the polls, but that the votes by correspondence make him lose, thus inciting his base to revolt.
There are other elements in Trump's favor as well. The US Constitution does not ensure a peaceful transfer of power, it only presupposes it. We also recall that the establishment of the Electoral College, which separates the results of the elections from the popular vote, invites abuses.
According to the Constitution, if it is not clear who won the presidential race, the President of the Chamber is appointed acting president. At the same time, however, both Trump and Biden could declare themselves president. This would push the final results into January, when it will be up to the new Congress to decide who will make the president, as the 12th Amendment allows the choice in the House.