For days he has been struggling to avoid the government crisis threatened by Renzi. In his speech at the end of the year, the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, was very worried and appealed to all political forces to find the ability to transform themselves into builders. But, do these builders exist, and where are they?
By carefully observing the games being played on the field of national politics, the probability that the President's invitation has been heard tends towards zero. Relations between government and parliament, within the majority that supports the executive and also between the opposition forces have become gangrenous. Only a political miracle could bring the situation back to positive, but it is not clear who can determine an event of decisive significance.
Thus, beyond the applause received from every political part and from every sector of parliament, Mattarella's message remains one clamoring voice in the desert.
Yet we must not despair
What do you mean? Politics is an intrinsic game of chance. If projected on the rules of poker, it emerges that not all players are in possession of cards that ensure a winning point, most of them either abandon the pot or raise the stakes by resorting to bluffing. In another type of game, not risky, such as scopone, those who, in the distribution of the cards have been disadvantaged by fate, have a move at their disposal, the spariglio, which causes the course of the game to skip. In the game of chess, it is the move of the horse that can help those who have everything against and find with that a way out even winning.
Coming up to date with the Italian situation, the analysis must start from mail which is on the table. And here the vision of the players is divergent, those who consider the large mass of financial resources that are about to arrive (209 billion from the European Union) as an opportunity for a great crony division, who on the contrary believe (or at least maintain) that those funds are to be used for a prospective and reconstruction project for Italy.
The Giallorossi government and its rabbit president, Giuseppe Conte, appear objectively to the first party. All that has been said and done in recent months cannot be explained otherwise: setting a table (rich dish I stick to it, in the language of poker) reserved for associates, leaving the opposition and, above all, parliament out or in a completely marginal position. These are not just clues, but proofs if you think of the arrogance with which President Conte defends his project.
To the second party belong those of the opposition (Forza Italia, Lega, Fdi) and those until yesterday inside the government majority, such as Italia Viva di Renzi, who feel marginalized, considered irrelevant, and therefore placed on the corner.
In this way an intertwining of games opens up. The second party, and above all Renzi, posed crucial questions: we need a real project capable of supporting the Italian civil, social and economic reconstruction; the Mes (35-36 billion euros) must be taken and used to put the national health system back on its feet; the centralization of powers in Conte's hands must cease, in particular on the control of the security services, suggesting that there is something unclear in Conte's refusal; enough with the Dpcm (decrees of the president of the council of ministers) that attribute those to the same Count full powers which in the summer of 2019 were the cause of Salvini's fall.
These are, so to speak, the formations in the game that is about to begin.
In the teams' changing rooms, the situation is turbulent. The Pd, as an ancient offensive player he perched on defense, begs Conte to get a move on, as if waiting for that Godot who will never arrive. At the same time he can't stand the Italia Viva Initiative which risks upsetting his plans: to remain in the saddle of the government, despite the fact that it is a minority in the country, and eager to play its cards at the next and more important deadline, the election of the President of the Republic which will succeed Mattarella in 2022. The internal situation is very precarious, the parliamentary groups show a malaise towards the politics, also immobilized, of the secretary Zingaretti, who in order to protect himself from the internal fronds puts forward the head of the government delegation, Franceschini. The latter, as an old Christian Democrat, tried to play the hell card against Renzi, showing early elections on the horizon. A bluff from kindergarten, the response was contemptuous, good, so you lose the government, the recovery fund table, and you will go to a certain electoral defeat.
On the other government partner, i 5Stelle no clear signal is received, if not the redundant echo of fear of elections that would drastically reduce parliamentary representation.
Movement and turmoil also in the opposition. The proposal for a no-confidence motion to the premier and the government, put forward, by the Hon. Melons, leader of the Brothers of Italy, was stopped by the League, arguing that the initiative would be resolved to Conte's advantage at the time of a vote of confidence.
The League stands at the window, watching opponents collide. Prudence and a tactical sense of prevailing Giorgetti compared to the impetuousness without result of Salvini. If the League wants to have a say in the political future that is being prepared, the person credited with taking the initiative can only be Giorgetti who is also working hard among the representatives of the European Union, preparing a reversal of the front.
While the Melons e Salvini they fight underground to acquire the leadership of the center right, without knowing where to concretely go, here is yet another return of Silvio Berlusconi, which turning a long "Message to young people", its The newspaper of last December 31, he claims to himself the leadership of the moderate liberal forces, "we have the right ideas to return to the leadership of the country, as leaders, not as supporting actors, with a credible and authoritative government in Europe and in the world ”.
And here is the deadline of January 7, seen as it final clash between Tale e Renzi.
From how the game went, Renzi's attack, motivated by documented and decisive assumptions, should lead to a government crisis. Conte's counter-move, to bring the question to parliament, is a blunt weapon, firstly because it is the only constitutionally correct path, secondly because the alternative to leaving the chair of Palazzo Chigi would be to find a sufficient number of responsible to continue to have a rag of the majority. He doesn't seem to have them at the moment, but as he noted Clemente Mastella, the "Vietcong" they pop up suddenly.
To an observer who poses the problem of Italy's future, the outcome of the clash, at the moment, does not appear decisive. In fact, the immediate victory does not matter, the perspective view counts. From this point of view, Conte is definitely a loser, no one would give him more political space even in the favorable case for him to stay temporarily at Palazzo Chigi. His undisguised passion to go up as a tenant of the Quirinale has already become evanescent, whether he is able to make a personal party. Well that goes, he can count on extra time, but the result is fixed.
Renzi is building a political perspective and, even going to the opposition, he qualifies as the possible point for an alternative future government, constituting in fact the engine of an aggregation of reformist liberal forces, a path along which he can also find reasons for the Nazarene pact with Berlusconi and, further on, the possible meeting with Giorgetti and the non-boorish part of the Lega.
If Renzi avoided the crisis, he would make the biggest mistake possible, for Italy rather than for his personal interests. After the defeat of the referendum, another great and unexpected opportunity presents itself to him, that of clearing up the game both within the government and between the opposition. He again has the chance to build another horse move after the one that led to Salvini's marginalization.
No fear of the government crisis, it is not the bad Wolf that too many fear, it is normal practice of democracy.
There is an old adage that says "the pitiful doctor makes the stinking sore ”. Italy already knows its wounds.
And no fear for the immediate future, a parliamentary government is possible, the President of the Republic is well able to identify an institutional solution, a guarantee for all, excluding the assignment of full powers which are not provided for by the Constitution.
Un constitutional guarantee government, to put an end to a situation that has become twisted and gangrenous. Crises also serve this purpose, to cut the rotten branches.